The role of Iran beneath the surface of the election in Iraq

March 9, 2010, 9:27 am

On Sunday Iraqis voted in the country’s parliamentary election and according to early reports no party, or blocs of parties, managed to win enough votes to be able to form a single-majority government.

The election process has been hailed as relatively democratic, despite evidence of fraud (tens of thousands of Kurds was according to reports denied the right to vote). The election results haven’t been announced yet, but whatever the result the different blocs will be forced to negotiate some kind of coalition government.

But beneath the surface of the election process the influence of Iran is evident. Long before the election campaign began Iran provided millions of dollars, campaign materials, political training to several groups and political parties in Iraq in order to influence the election.

Both influential and less influential Iraqi politicians travelled to Tehran before the election to secure Iranian backing and Iran welcomed all of them. The different political organizations that do not have any direct link to Iran attempts to avoid any form of conflict with Iran; everyone knows that a conflict with Iran will have serious consequences for any organization in Iraq.

For most Iraqi politicians Iranian support is vital and Iran is utilizing this need of support to its own benefit. The Iranians are everywhere in Iraq, in the political, economical and social sphere. There is no other country in the region that has as much influence in Iraq.

Iran supports everyone from secular to Islamist to militant groups and from small to large political organization. The strategy seems clear; Iran wants to have influence in all of the different political groupings in Iraq and Iran is some times pitting the different groups against each other and at other times Iran attempts to force them to collaborate with each other when it suits the interests of Iran.

And now that the election is over the political process of forming a government in Iraq will begin and Iran will do everything in its power to secure a pro-Iranian government. Iranian diplomats and secret agents are jockeying back and forward between different political groups attempting to bribe them and if that fails they will try to force them to do what Iran wants.

Based on the United States decision to pull its troops out of Iraq different political groups in Iraq are more inclined to do as Iran wants, because Iran will without a doubt become the major power in Iraq when the Americans leave. The different political groupings in Iraq knows this and this will have an crucial mark on the formation of the next government in Iraq.

Obama’s remarks on the election in Iraq and his decision to pull out the American forces (see video below) might sound as a President keeping his election promise, but in the ears of Iraqi politicians it sounds like a signal to start rethinking their political future and for the Iranians it sounds like another victory. 

Iran will also continue to use its influence in Iraq and other parts of the region, like Lebanon, Afghanistan and Palestine, to push back the United States from the region. The Iranians will also use their nuclear program to continue to push for more power and as long as the United States only focuses on Iran’s nuclear program and don’t take pre-emptive measures to halt Iran’s growing influence in the region, the regime in Iran will be able to continue to do as they want in the region.