Gates to Erdogan: Nuclear Iran Results in Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East or a Regional War, or both

7 Dec 2010 (Medya News) In it latest revelations of the US embassy cables, Wikileaks released a cable by US embassy in Paris on the talks between the French and US
Defence Ministers in Paris on defence issues and threats, particularly Iran.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was hosted by the French Minister of Defense Herve Morin for a working lunch during an official bilateral visit to Paris on February 8, 2010.

According to the leaked document, French and US have had different perspectives on NATO’s defense shield “On Missile Defense, SecDef (Robert Gates) refuted Morin’s contention that a European Missile Defense system is both unwise and unnecessary but pledged to give France and other Allies better information on the costs and command and control structure of the U.S. proposal.”

Gate “refuted Morin’s arguments, pointing out that MD contributes to deterrence.  SecDef explained to Morin that the system was aimed at nations with a handful of nuclear weapons and a limited but growing missile capability to launch them.  Noting Iran fits that profile, SecDef said that MD provides a good deterrent against limited attacks.”

“Both Morin and Gates agreed that Iran’s rejection of an engagement track meant that the time for pressure had arrived, but both noted concern over China’s opposition to a new UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR).” the cable added.

On Iran the cable from Paris elaborates on Russian position in regards to Iran and states that Russian Prime Minister Putin had once told Robert Gates that Iran was Russia’s greatest threat “Shifting from Missile Defense to Iran, SecDef noted that Russia is now of a different mind on Iran because of Tehran’s persistent rejection of international proposals for negotiated solutions and its concealment of the Qom facility.”

Further in their discussion with Morin, Gates had indicated that in his conversion with Erdogan he had made it bluntly clear  to him Iran’s nuclear threat, the cable adds “In this regard, SecDef told Morin he had been blunt with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, telling him that if Iran developed nuclear weapons, we were facing two scenarios:  nuclear proliferation in the Middle East or a regional war (or perhaps both).“

In response to the French Foreign Minister’s question whether Israel had the capabilities to attack Iran without the US support, according to the cable, Robert Gates had responded “he didn’t know if they would be successful, but that Israel could carry out the operation.”  However he firmly believed that “a conventional strike by any nation would only delay Iranian plans by one to three years, while unifying the Iranian people to be forever embittered against the attacker.”

Iran has been the main topic of the many discussions that the US officials have had with various world leaders and officials, revealed from the diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks.

The cables also show that US has Iran watchers in numerous embassies around the world especially in the regional countries bordering Iran that gather intelligence on Iran and its activities in the host country.

The leaks also demonstrate that the Arab leaders overwhelmingly support increasing pressure on Iran by the West and many have appealed for military attack on Iran, sparking unease tensions in the region.

Fearing the fallout of these leaks, Iran has blamed the US and Israel for leaks, and US for its part has been looking for ways to repair the damage done by the surfacing of its classified documents in the public domain.