Report sees Iran with nuclear arms in two years

Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon and could produce two bombs within two years, says a
leading London think-tank.

The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a report Iran had two routes to making enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon from its existing nuclear plants.

The report echoed Liam Fox, Britain’s Defence Secretary, who told the House of Commons Monday it was “entirely possible” the Islamic Republic would have developed a nuclear weapon by next year.

MarkFitzpatrick, thereport’s author, said he believed beyond reasonable doubt that Iran was pursuing a nuclear bomb.

A four-stage method developed by Pakistan to manufacture its nuclear weapons — plans for which have been sold to Tehran — would produce a device within a year and seven months, he said.

Alternatively, an untried technique to manufacture highly enriched uranium in one go, known to specialists as the “batch enrichment process,” would generate enough material in under a year, he claimed.

In both cases it would take another four months to install the uranium warhead.

“Iran has already produced a sizeable amount of low-enriched uranium which could be enough if further enriched for one or two nuclear weapons,” Mr. Fitzpatrick said.

“The minimum timeline, then, for the first weapon, is over two years under the Pakistan method and one year for the batch method. Developing a means to deliver a nuclear weapon adds to the timeline.”

He warned such a step would leave Iran facing military action.

“I don’t think the world is prepared to live with a nuclear-armed Iran but it is prepared to put up with a nuclear-capable Iran,” he said.

International sanctions and covert actions such as the Stuxnet computer virus had thrown up large hurdles to Iran’s ability to acquire equipment and radioactive supplies, he added, while clandestine efforts to infiltrate black market supply networks had also hampered Iranian progress.

Iran says the worm infected some computers at its primary nuclear plant but did not affect operations.

“I think the world has been pleasantly surprised by the limitations that have been imposed on the program through industrial sabotage and the Iranians’ reliance on inefficient methods,” Mr. Fitzpatrick said.