Sudan crisis: Violence persists with secession date looming. By Mary E. Stonaker

MARY E. STONAKERm Al Arabiya

Violence is escalating across Sudan as Africa’s largest nation is just a day away from splitting in two. The
North-South, Muslim-Christian, Arab-African split planned for July 9th was decided upon in a referendum in January 2011.

It is too easy, however, to draw dividing lines along geography, creed or race as an outsider — the reality on the ground is much more complex. There are several tension areas marked by one or more of these divides, such as the northern territory of Darfur along the western border.

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, signed between Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and President Omer Hassan al-Bashir’s national government, ended the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) and established the framework for the recent secession referendum.

Forces from the North and South have been fighting over South Kordofan, and future border town Abyei in particular, for ultimate control over land and oil in the north’s largest oil-rich region.

Reports of violence in the Nuba Mountains (Southern Kordofan) and the Blue Nile state indicate there is much more at stake than control of energy resources.

Mr. Bashir is playing for his survival as leader and the existence of the north as he continues to sing his old song of repression in the north as well as using military forces to dispute future national borders.

In the Nuba Mountains, people spend their days high in the mountains, suffocating in caves as their villages below are bombed.

Historically, the growth of the north and south as nations was separate under British colonial rule, for example – northerners spoke Arabic and southerners, English in two separate ruling entities until the unification in 1955.

Declaring the native northern tongue, Arabic, as the national language excluded southerners from participating and gaining fair and equal representation in their government after 1955.

Their cultural differences, along with two lengthy and bloody civil wars in the span of half a century make the vote for secession understandable and expected.

Further, the western annex of Darfur was also tribally different and yet drawn into Sudan at independence by the British as well. The crisis in Darfur, called genocide by many, has caused more than 2.7 million Darfur civilians to flee their homes since the violence began in 2003.

Presently, reports of state-sponsored violence in the Blue Nile state and the Nuba Mountains paint a weak state on the brink of mass dissolution. The UN estimated that 73,000 people have been displaced in South Kordofan alone since June 5th.

That figure does not indicate the mass exchanges of populations occurring as northerners residing in the south head north before the uncertain split, and vice versa.

While the formation of a Joint Political Committee between north and south this week does spell some promise for cooperation, Mr. Bashir’s repeated, violent attempts at quelling northern rebellions and protests indicates there is a long, bumpy road ahead.

On June 22nd six UN peacekeeping staff members were arrested in South Kordofan; two were subsequently released. The UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) was relocating from Kadugli to Wau, a city in the south, to escape relentless violence in the area.

Could Mr. Bashir be the next casualty of the “Arab Spring” sweeping the region?

At the moment, no one can know for sure though his brutal rule over the Sudanese people makes him a great candidate.

The two Sudans should be working together right now to ensure a stable and secure, amicable split in which sharing agreements are worked out.

The potential of oil to be used both as an economic and political pawn may serve as the match to light the fire of a full-blown, Third Sudanese Civil War.

Rebel fighters in Darfur are expected to be next to demand secession and Mr. Bashir will certainly not let that happen. With one domino falling, South Sudan, the nation may crumble before the eyes of the world into small, warring factions, each desperate for freedom from a government run by Mr. Bashir.

July 9th will be a day on which the world watches Sudan, hopes for the best and, unfortunately, expects the worst.

(Mary E. Stonaker is an independent scholar, most recently with the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore. She can be reached at marystonaker@gmail.com)